Bhubaneswar( Focus Plus) : A cyclonic storm may form over the Bay of Bengal this month with chances of heading towards the Odisha coast, a weather model indicated.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued on Thursday said that the NCEP-GFS model is predicting the formation of a low-pressure area over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea around 16th May. Thereafter, the low-pressure system is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the same area around 17th May. The model also indicates further intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm by 19th May while moving towards the Odisha coast.
On the other hand, the ECMWF model is indicating the formation of a feeble low-pressure area/ cyclonic circulation over eastcentral Bay of Bengal around 17th May, which is likely to move further northwestwards towards north Bay of Bengal by 19th May.
Similarly, the EC-AIFS model indicates probable cyclogenesis around 15th May over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal, which is likely to move initially north-northwestwards over central parts of the north Bay of Bengal and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh coast by 20th May.
The ECMWF ensemble model predicts a low to moderate (30-40%) probability of cyclogenesis over east central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal during 17th and 18th May, the outlook added.
